Posted: February 28th, 2023
I need initial post and 2 responses to classmates.
Modeling Real-World Probability Over Time
Suppose you and a team of coworkers are planning for the likelihood of two outcomes that may affect your company’s business in the future. You are tasked with modeling the interrelationship between two states, or outcomes, with a Markov system (i.e., state-transition diagram). Some possibilities would be the proportion of users who are paying for your service versus those who are not, devices that are produced to specification codes versus those that turn out defective, or kiosks that are working properly versus those that have started to malfunction.
Post 1: Initial Response
Develop a hypothetical scenario in which you and your team members are going to examine the likelihood that someone or something will be observed in one of two states at any point in time. As you develop your scenario, carefully address all of the following:
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Unit 10 Discussion Post 1 example
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Post 2: Reply to a Classmate
Assume your team member has passed the diagram and initial setup on to you for further analysis of how the likelihood of these outcomes may affect the company in the short term. Review a classmate’s state-transition diagram and address all of the following items.
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Unit 10 Discussion Post 2 example
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Post 3: Reply to Another Classmate
Assume your team members have now shared with you all of the information examined to date, including the diagram, initial setup, and analysis of what would be likely after one time period. Review a different classmate’s state-transition diagram and address all of the following items.
Matthew Goetzke
1.
Scenario:
Big Tech Company is mapping the success rate of successful production of Unit A. Unit A has a 70% chance to pass quality and make it to the customer, and a 30% chance of being retained for repair. The customer has a 10% chance of sending Unit A back to Big Tech Company, and a 90% chance of retaining Unit A.
2.
Graphic
3.
Interpreted for one period
State A = Unit A goes to quality
State B = Unit A is at customer
.3 * .3 +.1 * .7 = .16
.9 * .7+.7 * .3 = .84
V =
[.16 , .84]
This indicates that Units at quality have a 16% chance of being retained
Jay Wilt posted Feb 17, 2023 10:52 AM
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Hello Everyone,
The application development center released a new product three months ago and the organization wants to see which users of the application are paying for accounts or how many accounts are vacant. Our records indicate that 20% of vacant accounts become paid user accounts while 80% stay vacant. The same records show another 10% of paid user accounts became vacant after a month while 90% stayed as paid user accounts.
A: Paid user account
B: Vacant account
.90(.90) + .20(.10)=
.83
.80(.10) + .10(.90) =
.17
V =
.83 |
.17 |
This means that an account has an 83% chance of staying as a paid user account during the initial vector versus the account becoming vacant.
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